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Exploration Strategies - Feedback and New Developments
This page was last updated on 30th September 2002.
I have developed a new terminology for describing and comparing exploration strategies that I believe adds clarity to exploration planning and expectations for results. A brief description of the concept can be accessed here.
This page is devoted to providing feedback and new directions as the project progresses. Your comments and views on this approach are very welcome - please email dave@geohelp.net or phone me (403) 284-4775.
Many thanks to those who have provided feedback to date, your contributions are acknowledged below.
The following will be placed in a more logical format as time goes by!
1. Success rates for hunting by big cats are in the 20% range - this would seem to fit very well with the kind of results we expect to see with a Tiger Strategy in our Industry. Note it is also likely that for every animal a big cat actively hunts, there are probably many more that are observed or tentatively considered as targets - ie the more opportunities that are critically screened, the more likely to find the right one to pursue for a successful result.
2. Wolves are 4 times more successful hunting in packs than alone - This assumes that the wolves cooperate to use all their individual skills to benefit the pack. Could Joint Ventures become much more efficient if we worked more on the synergies of a group of Companies rather than just treating Joint Ventures as a means of reducing financial exposure?
3. Grizzly hunting strategy involves a variety of techniques - these take time to learn - a cub may stay with his mother for a number of years. In our business a Grizzly Strategy requires considerable experience. mentoring or the support of a number of different professionals will be required particulraly if junior staff are expected to pursue this type of strategy.
4. Vulture Strategy - risks are very low, there should be some prey to feed on in most cases. In our business even if successful, there is no guarantee of economic success. Note that a vulture can be driven off the prey by a more aggressive vulture or another predator. Vulture stategy is probably a continuum into development activity.
5. What is success? - I prefer to use success to imply an "economically viable result under current fiscal consditions". Unfortuately this requires detailed analysis and assumptions. The crude approach I used on some of my slides where "success" refers to cased wells was strictly a matter of convenience with the available data and obviously results in a far more optimistic (and misleading) view of success. In a recent study I had four definitions of "success" with the result varying from 89% to 10% for exactly the same data set. Clearly the definition of success needs to be clarifed when carrying out any kind of comparative assessment.
6. Management vs Worker Perceptions - Generally, Managers think their staff have an excellent grasp of Exploration Strategy and implications. Staff don't seem to share the confident view.
7. Vulture Strategy - Don't like the term, it wont catch on. - Fair comment, would appreciate any alternative suggestions - note that the term needs to: 1. Be a relatively small sized predator, 2. Reflect a hunting technique that is quite opportunistic and 3. Begin with a different letter of the alphabet than the other strategies so that they can be identified by unique letter. May be it's unpopular because it is such a good analogy for very close-in exploration - or maybe Hawk is as small as exploration gets and the rest is actually development?
Alternative suggestions to date include: Jackal, Hyena, Snake - not sure that any of these would be regarded as more acceptable terms.
8. I was thinking in terms of (small?) operators who serendipitously happen to chance across a relatively large discovery, rapidly exploit it, expand rapidly then collapse when the resource is depleted. Biological analogues would be bacteria (monarea) or fungus which happen across a 'prize' find otherwise they quickly perish. Economic examples would be Bre-X, Enron, WorldCom, etc
9. I read an article in Hart's E&P last week, an interview with a Dave Russum about grizzlies. wolves, vultures and tigers. You've been away from England too long - not even a single badger or hedgehog!
Acknowledgements:
Many thanks to the following who have provided additional comments and feedback (humble apologies if I have missed anyone): Bill Ayrton, Ted Bogle, Chuck Buckley, Dave Cape, Greg Cave, John Chipperfield, Matt Dymond. Alasdair Ferguson, Dave Flint, Cathy Gaviller, Tony Goodearl, Tony Hamblin, David James, Bob Jones, David Jung, Simon Maugher, Tom Moslow, Bob Schulz, Martin Teitz, Nigel Watts, Colin Yeo,